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NATO hoped that by sanctioning and boycotting Russia excessively and comprehensively, the Russian people would turn against their leadership. Russia, which declaredly invaded Ukraine over NATO expansion to the East, sees the knee-deep US involvement in the war as further confirmation of Moscow’s original fears as such, deepening its existential anxieties and stiffening its posture. The pumping of billions of dollars of US taxpayers’ money into Ukraine - a step unprecedented since World War II and is currently, some fear, threatening to bankrupt the US economy - reflects precisely the gravity of the situation. It will usher in an unfavourable geo-strategic and economic shift that could bring about seismic changes to the American way of life.
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Russia has been trying to capitalise on this global grievance to build an international bloc against the US-helmed “liberal international order.”įor the US and its Western allies, rebalancing and repositioning power through Ukraine means losing the centuries-long Westphalian gains, which Henry Kissinger once described as “conducted without the involvement or even the awareness of most other continents or civilisations.”įor the US in particular, the loss of its global hegemony amounts to an existential threat. The consensus is that the world order since the end of the Cold War has been progressively running into the fundamental dilemma of justifying and sustaining a model of US-based global economic and political hegemony. The Eurocentric implementation of human rights and selective wars of aggression, mainly by the US, have since World War II undermined international justice and planted seeds for more conflicts and destabilisation. Such a worldview resonates deeply in the global south. Within it, the US would accept Russian and Chinese dominance in their neighbourhoods and abandon its interventionism - via colour revolutions, military coups, or sanctions - to promote “freedom and democracy” that may disturb the “regional status quo.” Russia (and China) reimagine the new world order based on distinct spheres of influence. The current “unipolarity” and “universality” have given the US too much power in world politics. “We…together with you, and with our sympathisers will move towards a multipolar, just, democratic world order,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said ahead of a meeting with Chinese FM Wang Yi in March. Moscow was straightforward almost from the outset that Russia - and China - are seeking to change the world order. What is in question is less about regional geopolitics or imperialist greed, and more about the essence of the current world order - with Ukraine being its main battleground and Ukrainians its fuel. In the Russian-Ukraine war, however, the containment capacity is very limited.
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Impasses often lead to conflict intractability, which can be contained and, therefore, sustained for a long time without the menace of a global meltdown. Yet, this is precisely what signals a growingly dangerous impasse. The sanctions are allegedly not working, the Ruble has recovered, and punishing Moscow economically has backfired for several EU countries dependent on Russian gas and raw materials, many of which have now agreed to pay in the Ruble.Įach argument has some merit, but none are mutually exclusive.
#WORLD WAR 3 RUSSIA VS UK FULL#
Russia has taken full control of Mariupol and created a vast land corridor between Donbas and Crimea, cutting Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov and strangling its economy. The Russian narrative on the other hand, is that the operation is going to plan. ''There’s a fine line between rational and emotional reasoning, and in war, it is far too common for emotions to become information, and for the ‘information’ to be a catalyst to the decisions that are made.'' Finland and Sweden joining NATO is seen as yet another sign that Putin’s war has been a fiasco. Over 6000 sanctions on Russia, goes the argument, have foiled Putin’s plans and trapped the Russian troops in a costly attrition war. The Eurocentric narrative of the war revolves around the notion that the Russian army is stumbling in Ukraine, thanks mainly to billions of dollars-worth of weapons and equipment to the Ukrainian army by NATO. It only takes a brief comparison between pro-NATO and pro-Russia media to see that the majority of speculations by officials and political commentators are partisan, mostly filtered through the inner desires and wishful thinking of each party. With rapidly changing dynamics on the ground and the emergence of new geopolitical realities, most of the original predictions about the war have now become obsolete.
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As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth month, the horizon for a solution seems to be slipping further away.